Financial Projections — 3-Year Model
Assumptions
| Assumption | Value |
|---|
| Average clusters per customer | 2.5 (Year 1), 3.0 (Year 2), 3.5 (Year 3) |
| Average cluster management fee | €1,400/month blended |
| Average support tier revenue/customer | €400/month blended |
| Average infrastructure margin | 10% of pass-through |
| Customer acquisition cost (CAC) | €9,000 (Year 1), €6,550 (Year 2), €5,040 (Year 3) |
| Monthly logo churn | 2% (Year 1), 1.5% (Year 2), 1% (Year 3) |
| Net revenue retention | 110% (expansion > churn) |
| Professional services per new customer | €5,000 average |
| Payment terms | Net 30 (standard German B2B) |
Revenue Projections
Year 1 — Foundation (Months 1-12)
| Quarter | New Customers | Total Customers | Managed Clusters | MRR (end of quarter) |
|---|
| Q1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | €10,800 |
| Q2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | €26,000 |
| Q3 | 4 | 9 | 23 | €46,600 |
| Q4 | 5 | 13 | 33 | €67,800 |
| Revenue Type | Year 1 Total |
|---|
| Platform management fees | €410,000 |
| Support tier fees | €62,000 |
| Professional services | €70,000 |
| Infrastructure margin | €18,000 |
| Total Revenue | €560,000 |
Year 2 — Growth (Months 13-24)
| Quarter | New Customers | Total Customers | Managed Clusters | MRR (end of quarter) |
|---|
| Q1 | 5 | 17 | 51 | €96,200 |
| Q2 | 6 | 22 | 66 | €124,000 |
| Q3 | 7 | 28 | 84 | €155,200 |
| Q4 | 7 | 34 | 102 | €186,000 |
| Revenue Type | Year 2 Total |
|---|
| Platform management fees | €1,540,000 |
| Support tier fees | €290,000 |
| Professional services | €125,000 |
| Infrastructure margin | €52,000 |
| Total Revenue | €2,007,000 |
Year 3 — Scale (Months 25-36)
| Quarter | New Customers | Total Customers | Managed Clusters | MRR (end of quarter) |
|---|
| Q1 | 7 | 40 | 140 | €240,000 |
| Q2 | 8 | 46 | 161 | €275,000 |
| Q3 | 8 | 52 | 182 | €310,000 |
| Q4 | 8 | 58 | 203 | €345,000 |
| Revenue Type | Year 3 Total |
|---|
| Platform management fees | €2,940,000 |
| Support tier fees | €580,000 |
| Professional services | €160,000 |
| Infrastructure margin | €110,000 |
| Total Revenue | €3,790,000 |
Cost Structure
Year 1
| Cost Category | Monthly (avg) | Annual |
|---|
| Team (Salaries + Benefits) | | |
| Senior Platform Engineer (1x) | €7,500 | €90,000 |
| Platform Engineer (1x) | €6,000 | €72,000 |
| Sales / BD (1x, from Q2) | €5,500 | €49,500 |
| Subtotal Team | | €211,500 |
| Infrastructure | | |
| Management cluster (Hetzner) | €233 | €2,796 |
| Monitoring / logging infrastructure | €200 | €2,400 |
| SaaS tools (GitHub, Slack, etc.) | €500 | €6,000 |
| Subtotal Infrastructure | | €11,196 |
| Operations | | |
| Office / coworking | €1,000 | €12,000 |
| Legal / accounting (GmbH) | €800 | €9,600 |
| Insurance (business, cyber) | €300 | €3,600 |
| Subtotal Operations | | €25,200 |
| Sales & Marketing | | |
| Website, content | €500 | €6,000 |
| Events / conferences | €800 | €9,600 |
| Marketing tools | €300 | €3,600 |
| Subtotal S&M | | €19,200 |
| Total Costs Year 1 | | €267,096 |
Year 2
| Cost Category | Annual |
|---|
| Team (8 people) | €614,300 |
| Infrastructure | €36,000 |
| Operations | €42,000 |
| Sales & Marketing | €65,000 |
| Total Costs Year 2 | €757,300 |
Year 3
| Cost Category | Annual |
|---|
| Team (15 people) | €1,138,000 |
| Infrastructure | €72,000 |
| Operations | €60,000 |
| Sales & Marketing | €120,000 |
| Total Costs Year 3 | €1,390,000 |
Profitability Path
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|
| Revenue | €560,000 | €2,007,000 | €3,790,000 |
| Total Costs | €267,096 | €757,300 | €1,390,000 |
| EBITDA | €292,904 | €1,249,700 | €2,400,000 |
| EBITDA Margin | 52% | 62% | 63% |
| Gross Margin | 72% | 75% | 78% |
Break-even point: Month 3-4
Unit Economics
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Average Revenue Per Customer (ARPC) | €3,500-5,000/month |
| Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) | €5,040-9,000 |
| CAC Payback Period | 1.5-2 months |
| Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) | €150,000-262,000 (36-month avg.; blended calc: €4,500 MRR × 87% GM × 67 months = €262,395) |
| LTV:CAC Ratio | ~29:1 (Year 1, improving to ~52:1 by Year 3) |
| Gross Margin per Cluster | 75-80% |
| Marginal cost per new cluster | €50-100/month (monitoring + backup overhead) |
Cash Flow Considerations
| Item | Impact |
|---|
| Payment terms | Net 30 — expect 30-45 day receivables |
| Annual prepayment incentive | 15% discount drives upfront cash |
| Infrastructure costs | Paid monthly to Hetzner, no large upfront costs |
| Salary costs | Largest fixed cost — grows with team |
| Professional services | One-time cash injection per customer |
Recommended Cash Reserve
Maintain 3-month operating expense runway at all times:
- Year 1: €100K reserve
- Year 2: €240K reserve
- Year 3: €400K reserve
Key Financial Risks
| Risk | Mitigation |
|---|
| Slow customer acquisition | Bootstrap-friendly cost structure, can operate lean |
| Customer churn | Annual contracts with discount, high switching cost |
| Price pressure from hyperscalers | Differentiate on German data sovereignty + simplicity |
| Hiring costs exceed budget | Hire remote in Germany, competitive but not top-of-market |
| Infrastructure cost spikes | Hetzner pricing is stable and predictable |
| Currency risk | None — all EUR-denominated |